Category: Industry Trends

How the restaurant industry’s workforce evolved from pandemic chaos to a new normal — and what operators need to know to compete for talent in today’s market

---

Key Data Points

Employment & Recovery

• 42,000 jobs (0.3%) above February 2020 levels as of February 2026 — National Restaurant Association
• QSR and fast-casual restaurants added 79,000 jobs (2%) above pre-pandemic levels — Escoffier
• 18 states plus D.C. remain below pre-pandemic restaurant employment — National Restaurant Association
• Industry added net 128,800 jobs during 12 months ending February 2026 — National Restaurant Association

Wages & Compensation

• Average hourly wages jumped from $13.36 (April 2020) to $19.93 (December 2025) — Restaurant Dive
• Leisure and hospitality sector wages increased 3.8% year-over-year to $22.70 (April 2025) — OysterLink
• Waiters and servers earn average base wage of $17.56 per hour before tips — OysterLink
• Base wages now make up 43% of restaurant worker pay, up from 35% in January 2020 — ADP Research Institute
• Median hourly wage for waiters/waitresses ($15.36) vs. all-profession median ($23.11) — Kezner Consulting

Labor Shortage & Staffing

• 70% of operators report job openings difficult to fill; 45% don’t have enough employees — NetSuite/National Restaurant Association
• 986,000 job openings in restaurants and accommodations sector (October 2025) — National Restaurant Association
• Restaurant unemployment ranged between 5.5% and 6.8% in recent months — Restaurant Dive
• Turnover rates at 73.9% annually — Toast

Technology Impact

• Urbane Cafe: 22% higher check average on kiosk orders and 5.6% lift in total sales — Bite Case Study

2026 Projections

• Industry projected to add more than 100,000 jobs in 2026, reaching 15.8 million employees — National Restaurant Association

---

The restaurant labor market has undergone seismic shifts over the past five years. From the devastating pandemic job losses that saw over 3.7 million restaurant workers unemployed in early 2020, to the scramble for talent during the recovery, to where we stand today, restaurant operators have weathered a transformation that fundamentally changed how the industry approaches staffing.

As we navigate 2026, one thing is clear: we’ve reached a “new normal” that looks distinctly different from the pre-pandemic world. The question for operators is no longer “how do we get back to normal?” but rather “how do we thrive in this transformed landscape?”

Let’s examine what’s actually changed, what’s remained stubbornly the same, and what strategies are working for operators who are winning the war for talent.

The Numbers Tell a Complex Story

Employment Has Recovered… Sort Of

The headline news sounds positive: as of February 2026, restaurant employment stands at 42,000 jobs above February 2020 levels, representing a 0.3% gain. While this marks a recovery from the pandemic’s devastating job losses, the modest gains and month-to-month volatility—January saw the industry at 105,000 jobs above pre-pandemic levels before winter weather impacted February—reveal an industry still finding its footing.

But dig deeper, and the picture becomes more nuanced.

Full-service restaurants—the traditional sit-down establishments that were hardest hit during the pandemic—are still struggling to return to pre-pandemic staffing levels. While quick-service and fast-casual restaurants have added 79,000 jobs (2%) above pre-pandemic levels, full-service dining continues to lag behind.

The geographic distribution tells another story entirely. Eighteen states plus Washington D.C. remain below pre-pandemic restaurant employment, led by West Virginia (-6%), Maine (-5%), and New Mexico (-5%). Meanwhile, mountain states like Idaho (+20%), Utah (+14%), and Nevada (+13%) have surged well past their 2020 employment levels.

What This Means for Operators: The recovery isn’t uniform. Your experience depends heavily on your restaurant concept (QSR vs. full-service) and your location. If you’re in a lagging market, you’re competing for an even smaller pool of available workers.

Wages: The Gains Are Real, But Slowing

Perhaps the most significant change in the restaurant labor market is compensation. The numbers are striking:

• Average hourly wages for production and nonsupervisory restaurant workers jumped from $13.36 in April 2020 to $19.68—a nearly 50% nominal increase
• Average hourly earnings in the leisure and hospitality sector increased 3.8% year-over-year, from $21.87 in April 2024 to $22.70 in April 2025
• Waiters and servers now earn an average base wage of $17.56 per hour before tips, with tips making up approximately 69% of their hourly earnings.

The wage surge of 2021-2022, when restaurants saw year-over-year wage growth of 10-15%, has cooled considerably. Wage growth has moderated to more sustainable levels, but the gains made during those years have stuck.

Interestingly, base wages now make up 43% of restaurant worker pay, up from 35% in January 2020, as minimum wage increases and changing tipping behaviors reshape compensation structures.

What’s Changed: Restaurants can no longer compete for talent with pre-pandemic wages. The $15/hour floor that was once debated is now baseline in most markets, with many operators paying $18-20/hour or more.

What Hasn’t Changed: The fundamental wage gap between restaurants and other industries persists. The median hourly wage for waiters and waitresses ($15.36), including tips, is significantly lower than the all-profession median of $23.11, making it difficult to attract talent away from other sectors.

The Labor Shortage: Still Here, But Evolving

Job Openings vs. Available Workers

Despite employment gains, the labor shortage hasn’t disappeared—it’s just evolved. Seventy percent of restaurant operators report having job openings that are difficult to fill, while 45% say they don’t have enough employees to support existing customer demand, according to the National Restaurant Association.

The challenge is structural: there are consistently more job openings than available workers to fill them. While the gap has narrowed from pandemic highs, demand for workers remains elevated. As of October 2025, there were 986,000 job openings in the combined restaurants and accommodations sector, roughly unchanged from earlier months despite ongoing hiring challenges. The industry added a net 128,800 jobs during the 12 months ending February 2026, yet demand for workers continues to outpace supply.

The Turnover Challenge Remains

If there’s one metric that hasn’t fundamentally improved, it’s turnover. The restaurant industry continues to experience some of the highest turnover rates across all sectors.

While turnover rates have decreased from the peak of 2020 to around 73.9% annually, this remains extraordinarily high. To put it bluntly: roughly three out of every four employees will leave within a year.

The financial impact is devastating. Every departing employee costs money in recruitment, training, and lost productivity. With tight margins already squeezed by food costs and rent, high turnover is one expense operators can’t afford but can’t seem to escape.

What’s Changed: The “Great Resignation” has shifted to what experts call the “Great Stay”—workers are staying in their jobs longer, but not necessarily in the restaurant industry.

What Hasn’t Changed: Restaurant work is still fast-paced, physically demanding, and often involves irregular hours. These fundamental aspects of the job contribute to burnout and drive turnover, regardless of economic conditions.

Why Workers Still Aren’t Returning

The pandemic fundamentally reset worker expectations. Many who left restaurant jobs during COVID discovered:

1. Better Work-Life Balance Exists Elsewhere

Other industries like retail and delivery services offer more predictable hours and often better benefits. A gig economy driver can set their own schedule; a retail worker knows they’ll be off by 9 PM. Restaurant work, with its split shifts, weekend requirements, and unpredictable schedules, struggles to compete.

2. Rising Costs of Living Require Higher, More Stable Pay

While wages have increased, inflation has eaten into those gains. Real wages—adjusted for inflation—have increased only modestly since 2018. Workers need not just higher pay, but also predictable pay. The tip-dependent model, while potentially lucrative for some, introduces income volatility that many workers can no longer afford.

3. Health and Safety Concerns Linger

Though COVID restrictions have eased, health and safety concerns continue to influence job choices. Workers in customer-facing roles remain exposed to illness, and some simply aren’t willing to take that risk for restaurant wages.

4. The Job Itself Hasn’t Changed

Perhaps most fundamentally, restaurant work is still restaurant work. It’s physically demanding, often stressful, and involves dealing with difficult customers. No amount of wage increases changes the fundamental nature of the job—and for workers who found alternatives during the pandemic, there’s simply no compelling reason to return.

What’s Actually Working: Strategies from Successful Operators

While the challenges are real, some operators are finding success. Here’s what’s working:

1. Technology as a Labor Multiplier

Smart operators aren’t just trying to fill positions—they’re reducing the number of positions they need to fill in the first place.

Kiosk ordering systems reduce the need for order-takers, allowing restaurants to maintain throughput with fewer front-of-house staff. This isn’t about eliminating jobs; it’s about reallocating labor to higher-value activities.

Urbane Cafe, a 43-location fast casual chain, reallocated labor at the front of house after implementing kiosks. Locations that previously relied on two cashiers now operate efficiently with one team member serving as a cashier, kiosk ambassador, and guest experience facilitator. 

“We used to have two cashiers. Now we really only have one,” says Caprice Kindgren, Director of Marketing at Urbane Cafe. “It’s not like we’re giving worse guest service because there’s a kiosk—you just make sure you’re still welcoming guests.” 

The result? A 22% higher check average on kiosk orders and a 5.6% lift in total sales across 16 locations.

Mobile ordering, QR code menus, and contactless payment all serve the same purpose: doing more with the staff you have.

2. Flexible Scheduling and Quality of Life

The operators winning the talent war are those who recognize that competitive wages are table stakes—the real differentiator is quality of life.

Flexible scheduling options that accommodate workers’ needs—whether that’s childcare, school, or other commitments—make restaurant jobs more attractive. Some operators are experimenting with guaranteed minimum hours to provide income stability, while others offer shift-swapping apps that give workers more control.

3. Career Development and Growth Opportunities

Workers, especially younger ones, want to know there’s a path forward. Operators who invest in training programs, create clear advancement paths, and support professional development are seeing better retention.

The key is making these opportunities visible and accessible from day one. Don’t wait six months to tell a new hire they could be a manager—show them the path during orientation.

4. Benefits That Actually Matter

Health insurance, paid time off, and retirement plans were once rare in restaurants. They’re becoming standard among operators who want to compete for talent.

But benefits need to match worker needs. For part-time workers, access to earned wage access (getting paid for shifts already worked before payday) can be more valuable than a 401(k). For parents, childcare assistance or flexible scheduling trumps many traditional benefits.

5. Streamlining the Hiring Process

In a competitive labor market, speed matters. Technology-enabled hiring that streamlines applications and onboarding can be the difference between securing a good candidate and losing them to a competitor who moves faster.

Operators are using SMS-based recruitment, virtual interviews, and streamlined onboarding to reduce time-to-hire from weeks to days.

The Road Ahead: What to Expect in 2026

As we move through 2026, several trends are likely to shape the restaurant labor market:

The Industry Will Stabilize, Not Return

Don’t expect a return to pre-pandemic labor dynamics. The industry is projected to add more than 100,000 jobs in 2026, reaching 15.8 million employees, but the fundamental challenges around wages, turnover, and competition for workers will persist.

Regional Divergence Will Continue

Labor markets will remain highly local. Some states are seeing robust growth while others lag, and this pattern will likely continue. Operators need to understand their local market conditions rather than relying on national trends.

Technology Adoption Will Accelerate

Labor shortages are accelerating technology adoption across the industry. From AI-powered scheduling to robotic kitchen assistants to kiosk ordering, operators are increasingly turning to technology not as a nice-to-have but as a necessity.

The question isn’t whether to adopt labor-saving technology, but which technologies and when.

The War for Talent Will Remain Intense

With low unemployment rates and workers having more options than ever, restaurants will continue competing not just with each other but with every other employer in their market.

The operators who succeed will be those who recognize this reality and adapt accordingly—through better compensation, better work environments, better scheduling, and better use of technology to make their employees more productive.

The Bottom Line

The state of restaurant labor in 2026 is a study in contrasts. Employment has recovered, but not evenly. Wages have increased significantly, yet staffing challenges persist. Workers have more options, but restaurants still need to fill positions.

What’s become abundantly clear is that there’s no going back to 2019. The pandemic permanently reset the labor market, and successful operators are those who’ve accepted this new reality and adapted their strategies accordingly.

The path forward requires a multi-faceted approach:

• Competitive wages and meaningful benefits to attract talent
• Technology to multiply the productivity of the staff you have
• Flexible scheduling and quality-of-life improvements to retain workers
• Efficient hiring processes to move quickly when good candidates appear
• Career development opportunities to build long-term loyalty

The restaurant labor shortage of 2020-2022 may have evolved into something more manageable, but make no mistake: the fundamental challenge of attracting and retaining talent in a competitive market isn’t going away. The operators who will thrive in 2026 and beyond are those who treat labor strategy not as a cost to minimize, but as a competitive advantage to maximize.

Walk into a modern convenience store today and you might find yourself ordering a made-to-order breakfast sandwich, customizing a fresh salad bowl, or grabbing a craft coffee that rivals your neighborhood café. This isn’t your grandfather’s gas station—it’s the front line of what industry observers are calling “the Foodvenience Revolution.”

As convenience stores transform into modern retail powerhouses, they’re no longer simply located near gas pumps—they’re embedded in the rhythm of daily life. From fresh breakfast sandwiches to hot lunch options and locally inspired snack assortments, c-stores are stepping into territory once dominated exclusively by quick-service restaurants.

The stakes are high. With transaction counts inside stores flat at best, according to NACS Research, operators must maximize revenue per visit while navigating labor shortages, rising operational costs, and intensifying competition from traditional restaurants fighting back with aggressive value propositions.

But this challenge also represents an unprecedented opportunity. As QSR prices climb and consumers become more value-conscious, convenience stores are uniquely positioned to capture market share through strategic investments in foodservice, technology, and customer experience. Here are the defining trends reshaping the convenience retail landscape in 2026.

C-Stores Now Own Breakfast, Challenging Traditional QSRs

Perhaps the most transformative shift in convenience retail is the aggressive repositioning of c-stores as legitimate breakfast destinations. C-stores are stepping up their breakfast games, with major chains debuting breakfast lineups that could easily be mistaken for fast-casual restaurant offerings.

7-Eleven’s recent breakfast launch exemplifies this evolution: pearl sugar-studded Belgian waffle breakfast sandwiches, Waffle Tots for $1, and El Gran Tocino Breakfast Tacos demonstrate the sophistication level c-stores are achieving. At breakfast, consumers typically want speed, predictability, and value—attributes that play directly to convenience stores’ core strengths.

The demand is substantial and growing. Research shows that 66% of customers wish they could get made-to-order food from a convenience store, with Gen Z showing a particularly strong appetite for this option at 72%. The global breakfast food market’s growth from $210 billion in 2026 to $255 billion by 2030 creates a massive opportunity for operators who can execute well.

The Technology Enabler

Self-service kiosks serve as the critical technology enabling breakfast program scalability. These systems manage morning rush complexity while maintaining the speed customers demand, allowing limited staff to focus on food preparation and quality control rather than order-taking. For operators, kiosks solve the dual challenge of labor efficiency and order accuracy during peak periods.

“In convenience stores, reliability is the top priority. Many locations operate 24/7 and experience sustained, high-traffic usage, which places significant wear on hardware,” explains Jared Epstein, Account Executive at Frank Mayer. “We’re seeing strong demand for both self-checkout and self-order kiosks as C-stores expand foodservice offerings. In many cases, they’re starting to resemble QSR environments – something that’s obvious when you look at brands like Wawa, where speed, consistency, and uptime are critical.”

Extended breakfast hours allow c-stores to capture late-morning and “second breakfast” occasions that traditional restaurants often miss, with some locations serving breakfast items well into the afternoon—a flexibility impossible for labor-constrained QSRs with fixed daypart transitions.

AI-Driven Operations Transform Back-of-House Efficiency

After showing initial hesitancy with artificial intelligence, convenience retailers are now embracing c-store-specific AI technologies rather than generic solutions that could work across any industry. The focus is on practical applications that directly impact profitability and operational efficiency.

Computer Vision for Waste Reduction

Stinker Stores’ February 2025 implementation of AI-powered camera vision to monitor roller grills represents the new generation of foodservice optimization. The system records which items sell and when, using that data to create actionable plans that improve sales while reducing waste—a critical capability given the slim margins in prepared food programs.

“AI is at the top of the list, especially the evolving data infrastructure and governance requirements that come with deploying AI platforms effectively,” notes Tom Colbert, VP of IT at Kwik Trip, in discussing what retail technology trends to watch in 2026.

Predictive Analytics for Inventory Management

Leading c-stores are using predictive analytics and store-level retail data to determine which fresh offerings to prepare each morning, implement dynamic pricing to optimize margin while reducing waste, and maintain real-time inventory visibility to ensure product availability. This operational intelligence transforms fresh food programs from money-losing gambles into profitable differentiators.

Customer Tracking and Experience Optimization

Some operators are implementing AI-driven customer tracking systems that monitor movement patterns throughout the store. “There are systems using AI that allow store operators to track customer movements in the store and locate the most traveled paths throughout the store,” explains Mike Gilligan, president of Gilligan’s Retail. “With this information, we can tailor our product offering depending on where the customer shops.”

Retail Media Networks Are The New Revenue Frontier

Retail media networks represent perhaps the most significant untapped revenue opportunity for convenience retailers in 2026. RMNs are projected to generate $89 billion by 2026, up from $46 billion in 2023, yet convenience stores have lagged behind other retail segments in developing these high-margin advertising businesses.

The C-Store Advantage for Retail Media

Convenience stores present unique characteristics that make them excellent candidates for highly effective RMNs, particularly in physical stores. C-store sales are driven by impulse, immediate-consumption purchases where shoppers are looking for inspiration during the shopping trip. This creates prime opportunities for point-of-decision advertising.

Several major chains have launched successful retail media programs:

• 7-Eleven’s Gulp Media Network focuses on “immediate consumption purchase occasions” with coast-to-coast reach
• Casey’s expanded partnership with GSTV adds video content to fuel dispensers at 2,900 stores across 19 states
• Love’s Travel Stops launched its retail media platform serving ads on fuel pumps and in-store digital screens across 660+ locations
• Wiegel’s Milk Crate Retail Media Network offers ad inventory across apps, websites, video, and social media
• EG America’s retail media network, using digital screens and loyalty data, has delivered “meaningful sales lift” for CPG partners

Early results validate the model. Products advertised through c-store retail media see average sales lifts of 5-9% during campaigns, with one 7-Eleven Slurpee promotion raising unit sales by 11% during activation.

The Infrastructure Investment

“I expect launches in 2026 to more than double what we saw in 2025,” predicts Matt Riezman, partner at NexChapter. “What’s particularly interesting is how this is forcing c-store retailers to professionalize their marketing operations almost overnight. They’re hiring talent from consumer packaged goods and traditional retail, building out ad tech stacks and fundamentally rethinking their relationships with suppliers.”

Dover Fueling Solutions’ launch of 4Court Media represents the next evolution, allowing c-store chains to integrate their own promotional content alongside national ads on fuel dispenser screens. The company’s research shows retailers plan to significantly increase investment in promotion and advertising technology (36%) and digital signage (34%) over the next two years.

Third Place Positioning with Premium Environments

Convenience stores are becoming more than places to shop—they’re becoming places to stay. An increasing number of retailers are introducing café-style seating, curated product assortments, and enhanced store designs that make the environment feel more intentional and community-driven.

The European Model Comes to America

Retailers such as Shell Café and Rusty Lantern are setting the pace with formats that look and feel more like boutique cafes than traditional gas stations. Rutter’s 1747 store features multiple screens, sports tickers, and a full bar, exemplifying how c-stores may fill the growing need for third places in 2026.

This strategy particularly resonates with younger shoppers who see retail spaces as extensions of their lifestyle. They want environments that reflect their values and offer more than transactional utility. The investment in ambiance, comfortable seating, premium WiFi, and work-friendly environments positions c-stores as community gathering spaces beyond fuel stops.

The Business Model Evolution

This “third place” strategy allows c-stores to capture different dayparts and occasions:

• Morning coffee meetings
• Remote workers seeking afternoon workspaces
• Evening social gatherings
• Study sessions for students

Each represents an occasion that traditional convenience stores rarely captured. The investment in environment and amenities is justified by higher average transaction values and increased visit frequency from customers who view the location as a destination rather than just a pit stop.

EV Charging Infrastructure Reshapes Store Design and Economics

The proliferation of electric vehicle charging stations is fundamentally changing convenience store customer behavior, facility design, and revenue models. Extended dwell times of 20-30 minutes during charging sessions create both challenges and opportunities for operators.

From Quick Stop to Destination Visit

Traditional c-store visits average 3-5 minutes. EV charging extends this to 20-30 minutes, requiring completely different facility design and service models. Leading operators are responding with:

• Premium food offerings designed specifically for charging customers with time to enjoy a meal
• Digital ordering integration, allowing customers to place orders from their vehicles for pickup
• Comfortable seating areas with power outlets, WiFi, and work-friendly environments
• Entertainment options, including gaming areas, premium coffee bars, and retail boutiques

The key insight is designing the experience around the customer’s need state during the charging period rather than optimizing for speed-of-service. This fundamentally different approach requires new facility layouts, staffing models, and product mix strategies.

The Revenue Opportunity

While fuel margins provide baseline profitability, the real opportunity with EV charging comes from maximizing in-store purchases during extended dwell times. Operators who successfully convert charging customers into foodservice customers can achieve significantly higher per-visit revenue than traditional fuel transactions.

Self-Checkout and Cashierless Technology Scale Rapidly

Self-checkout transactions are expected to make up nearly 40% of all retail transactions globally by 2026, driven by consumer demand for speed and control. But c-stores are pushing beyond traditional self-checkout toward fully cashierless shopping experiences.

Just Walk Out Technology Goes Mainstream

Reitan Convenience Estonia’s R-Kiosk locations exemplify where the technology is headed. Customers enter using a bank card or mobile app, grab what they need, and walk out—no checkout lines, no waiting. Behind the scenes, AI-powered sensors and cameras track product movements in real time, automatically updating each shopper’s virtual cart.

“Innovation touches every part of the retail experience, even if customers only see a fraction of what’s happening behind the scenes,” says Tiia Ilves, CEO of Reitan Convenience Estonia. “Technology helps us create a more intuitive shopping journey. But it also means keeping both staff and customers informed and comfortable with these new tools.”

Smart Shelves and Inventory Intelligence

According to McKinsey research, retailers using smart shelf technology can reduce out-of-stock rates by up to 30% and cut manual inventory checks by nearly 40%. In stores where customers expect to grab what they need and go immediately, these improvements directly impact revenue.

Smart shelves automatically flag when items are running low or misplaced, helping staff keep shelves filled without constant manual checks—particularly critical for fast-moving essentials like bottled drinks, snacks, and ready-to-eat meals. Some retailers are tapping into behavioral data captured by shelf sensors to understand what draws attention, what gets picked up and put back, and using these insights to optimize product placement and pricing strategies.

Age Verification Automation

As self-checkout expands, age verification for restricted items becomes critical. Advanced systems can flag suspicious IDs, maintain audit trails for regulatory compliance, and integrate with existing POS and inventory platforms. Biometric and ID scanning reduce both labor requirements and compliance risk.

Labor Optimization Through Strategic Technology Investment

Finding and retaining good employees remains one of the biggest operational challenges in the convenience space, with labor costs rising, turnover remaining high, and customers expecting consistent service regardless of staffing levels.

The Foodservice Hiring Challenge

As c-stores invest heavily in foodservice to compete with QSRs, they face a critical challenge: “Training somebody just to do the register—which I’m not really a proponent of—is relatively easy. Training someone to work in a QSR is a lot harder,” notes retail consultant Jeff Keune.

The focus on foodservice quality forces operators to change hiring and training practices. Although seeking more food-qualified workers narrows the talent pool, it can improve retention by attracting employees seeking skills development and career progression rather than just temporary work.

Technology as Labor Multiplier

Rather than replacing workers, successful c-store technology deployments multiply worker effectiveness. Solutions that integrate into existing operations without requiring additional headcount, extensive training, or new point-of-sale systems drive revenue growth without increasing operating costs.

Examples include:

• AI-powered scheduling systems that optimize shift coverage based on predicted demand
• Automated inventory tracking that reduces time spent on manual counts
• Self-service kiosks that allow staff to focus on food preparation and customer service
• Computer vision systems that monitor equipment performance and flag maintenance needs

The Cultural Imperative

Keune emphasizes that QSRs often have stronger employee cultures than convenience retailers because restaurants prioritize employees over growth initiatives or product launches. “Make sure that [employees] are set up for success, because that’s the key, as much as anything else,” he advises. “Set up for success and then recognize and compensate for jobs well done.”

Technomic’s 2026 Foodservice Trends Forecast predicts labor challenges will intensify as policy, economic, lifestyle, and demographic factors conspire to reduce the available pool. U.S. labor participation among 16-19 year-olds has declined from 53% in 1994 to 37% in 2024, with forecasts showing a further drop to 35% by 2034.

Digital Visibility and Personalized Promotions Drive Traffic

Today’s customers plan every stop on their phones—checking prices, looking for deals, and comparing locations before they ever get in the car. Retailers that meet customers in these digital moments are winning transactions competitors never see.

The Shift to Intentional Shopping

One of the biggest changes in consumer behavior is the shift from impulse-driven convenience store visits to intentional, planned trips. Customers are shopping strategically, making deliberate choices about where to spend money based on value perception, available promotions, and overall offering quality. This means a store’s digital visibility and value communication matter more than location alone. 

Loyalty Programs as Revenue Drivers

Loyalty members visit more frequently and spend more per visit, while providing valuable customer data that enables targeted marketing. Digital loyalty programs allow operators to:

• Track purchase history and preferences at the individual level
• Deliver personalized promotions based on buying patterns
• Test and optimize promotional strategies in real-time
• Measure campaign effectiveness with precision
• Build direct communication channels with customers

Retail Media Integration

The most sophisticated operators are integrating loyalty data with retail media networks, creating closed-loop attribution that demonstrates promotional ROI to CPG brand partners. This data-driven approach transforms convenience stores from simple product distributors into strategic marketing partners capable of driving measurable results for suppliers.

The Path Forward: Operational Excellence at Scale

The convenience stores thriving in 2026 share common characteristics that transcend any single trend or technology:

1. Data-Driven Decision Making
Leaders are using predictive analytics, computer vision, and AI-powered systems to make smarter operational decisions. They understand local demand patterns, optimize inventory in real-time, and adjust strategies based on measured results rather than intuition.

2. Customer-Centric Technology
Technology investments are guided by customer needs rather than industry hype. Self-checkout, mobile ordering, and digital loyalty programs are deployed because customers demand them and because they demonstrably improve experience and profitability—not because they’re trendy.

3. Foodservice as Core Strategy
The most successful operators have moved beyond viewing foodservice as a nice-to-have add-on. Foodservice is now a primary draw that generates 27.7% of in-store sales and nearly 40% of gross margin, making it one of the most important profit drivers for the channel.

4. Revenue Diversification
Rather than relying solely on fuel margins, leaders are building multiple revenue streams through foodservice, retail media networks, EV charging, and premium merchandise programs. This diversification provides resilience against volatility in any single category.

5. Operational Discipline
Excellence in execution separates winners from losers. This means maintaining consistent food quality, ensuring equipment uptime, managing labor efficiently, controlling inventory waste, and delivering reliable customer experiences across all dayparts and locations.

The Technology Partner Imperative

For convenience store technology providers, this environment presents a significant opportunity. Solutions that work seamlessly across multiple foodservice formats, adapt to each operator’s unique requirements, deliver measurable ROI through increased check sizes and improved accuracy, and integrate smoothly with existing systems will be essential partners for operators navigating this transformation.

The technology that wins won’t be the flashiest or most futuristic—it will be the solutions that solve real operational problems, work within operators’ existing infrastructure, and deliver results from day one. As c-stores continue blurring the lines with traditional restaurants, the ordering and payment technologies that enable efficient, accurate, and profitable foodservice operations will become increasingly critical.

Key Data Points

Foodservice Revenue Performance:

• Foodservice accounts for 27.7% of in-store c-store sales and 38.6% of in-store gross margin (Restaurant Business)
• Products advertised through retail media networks see 5-9% sales lift during campaigns (C-Store Dive)
• 66% of customers want made-to-order food from convenience stores, with 72% of that demand coming from Gen Z (CStore Decisions)

Consumer Behavior & Technology:

• Self-checkout transactions expected to reach 40% of all retail transactions globally by 2026 (LS Retail)
• Global breakfast food market valued at $210 billion in 2026, growing to $255 billion by 2030 (Tastewise)
• Transaction counts inside c-stores remain flat, driving focus on per-visit revenue optimization (C-Store Dive)

Retail Media Networks:

• Retail media networks projected to generate $89 billion by 2026, up from $46 billion in 2023 (Convenience Store News)
• Dynamic planograms deliver 12-20% category sales uplift (CSP Daily News)
• Retail media ad spending to hit $106 billion globally by 2027 (Gable)

The American foodservice landscape is experiencing a period of unprecedented transformation as technology adoption, labor pressures, and evolving consumer expectations converge to reshape how we eat out. From quick-service restaurants deploying AI-powered drive-thrus to convenience stores positioning themselves as legitimate breakfast destinations, the traditional boundaries between dining segments are blurring faster than ever before.

As we move through 2026, restaurant operators face a market defined by cautious consumers, intense value competition, and the imperative to do more with less. Traffic growth is expected to remain below 1 percent this year, forcing brands to compete for market share rather than rely on overall industry expansion. At the same time, pricing across segments has converged around the critical $10-$12 threshold, creating fierce competition between fast casual, QSR, and even casual dining concepts.

The winners in this environment will be operators who successfully balance technology investment with operational excellence, labor optimization with elevated guest experiences, and value pricing with quality perception. Here’s what’s shaping each major segment in 2026.

Fast Casual Trends

Hybrid Dining Models Blur the Line Between Fast Casual and Full Service

Fast casual restaurants are increasingly adopting elements traditionally associated with full-service dining as they seek to justify premium price points and differentiate from value-focused competitors. This includes table service options with QR code ordering, premium beverage programs featuring craft cocktails and curated wine selections, and extended daypart offerings that allow them to compete with traditional restaurants during breakfast and late-night hours.

However, this evolution comes with challenges. Fast casual traffic slowed from 3.3% growth in December 2024 to just 1.7% in October 2025, with consumers increasingly questioning the value proposition of $15-$20 entrees. Leading brands are responding by emphasizing experience over pure convenience. The most successful concepts are creating “third place” environments with comfortable seating, WiFi access, and work-friendly amenities that justify higher price points through enhanced ambiance rather than just food quality.

AI-Powered Kitchen Operations Optimize Labor

With labor remaining one of the industry’s most persistent challenges, fast casual operators are turning to artificial intelligence to streamline back-of-house operations. Roughly one-third of restaurant operators in 2026 already use AI technologies, while nearly half plan to adopt them in the near term, focusing on predictive inventory management, automated prep scheduling based on demand forecasting, and intelligent kitchen display systems with AI-powered routing.

These investments are paying off. AI automation can trim 15-50% of labor hours in targeted workflows, according to data from successful implementations. The technology allows restaurants to predict demand patterns, optimize staffing levels, and reduce waste—all critical capabilities in an environment where margins are under constant pressure. Kitchen display systems enhanced with AI can now route orders to specific stations based on real-time capacity, crew skill levels, and equipment availability, significantly improving throughput during peak periods.

Sustainability Moves from Marketing to Operations

Environmental initiatives are shifting from customer-facing marketing messages to core operational practices. Fast casual brands, which have historically positioned themselves as more environmentally conscious than traditional QSRs, are now implementing zero-waste kitchen initiatives, renewable energy installations, and sourcing strategies that prioritize local suppliers as standard practice rather than premium positioning.

This operational focus on sustainability serves dual purposes: it reduces costs through waste reduction and energy efficiency while meeting consumer expectations for environmental responsibility. The key difference from previous “green” initiatives is that sustainability is now embedded in operations rather than marketed as a premium feature. Brands are finding that customers increasingly expect sustainable practices as table stakes rather than differentiated benefits worth paying extra for.

Loyalty Programs Become Revenue Centers

Fast casual operators are transforming loyalty programs from customer retention tools into significant revenue drivers. Subscription-style loyalty programs are lowering marketing expenses while increasing visit frequency, with some major chains reporting that loyalty members account for more than half of total sales.

The evolution includes tiered membership structures with exclusive menu access, early access to limited-time offers, and personalized pricing based on individual purchase patterns. Data-driven personalization allows brands to deliver hyper-personalized guest experiences that drive both frequency and average check. The most sophisticated programs use AI to predict when individual customers are most likely to visit and what offers will drive incremental purchases, transforming loyalty from a defensive retention tool to an offensive growth driver.

For instance, the hardware enabling this personalization, such as self-service kiosks, is becoming increasingly sophisticated. 

“When tied to loyalty programs, facial recognition or visual identification can have returning customers opt-in to receive customized menus, preferred item shortcuts, or targeted promotions the moment they approach the kiosk,” notes Jared Epstein, Account Executive at Frank Mayer – Kiosks and Displays.

---

QSR Trends

Drive-Thru 2.0: Multi-Channel Order Fulfillment

Quick-service restaurants are fundamentally reimagining the drive-thru as an omnichannel fulfillment center rather than a single-purpose service lane. Drive-thru and delivery channels now account for over 70% of revenue at leading QSR brands, driving massive investments in dedicated mobile order pickup lanes, AI voice ordering systems, and outdoor kiosk ordering with curbside pickup options.

The technology transformation is particularly evident in voice AI adoption. Voice ordering is crossing a critical threshold in 2026, moving from experimental technology to essential infrastructure, with pizza and high-volume takeout categories already seeing 26%+ phone revenue increases. New drive-thru designs feature dual lanes with separate routing for mobile orders versus traditional ordering, cutting transaction times to under 90 seconds while increasing throughput by up to 18% in pilot markets.

Operators are also rethinking store layouts, dedicating just 25% of floor space to seating while investing in walk-up windows and curbside pickup infrastructure that maximizes revenue per square foot without expanding the building footprint.

Premium Menu Stratification

QSR brands are breaking away from traditional value-focused positioning by introducing elevated ingredients, limited-time collaborations with celebrity chefs and brands, and tiered pricing structures featuring “signature” product lines. Burger King’s partnerships with entertainment properties like SpongeBob demonstrate how major chains are using branded collaborations to create buzz and justify premium pricing.

This trend reflects QSRs’ attempt to compete with fast casual concepts on quality while maintaining speed advantages. Chains are developing dual-tier menus with both value-priced basics and premium offerings that allow customers to trade up when they’re willing to spend more. The key is maintaining the operational simplicity and speed that define quick service while incorporating ingredients and preparations traditionally associated with higher-end concepts.

Ghost Kitchens Come In-House

Rather than ceding delivery-only concepts to third-party ghost kitchen operators, QSR brands are launching their own virtual concepts from existing locations. This allows chains to maximize utilization of their kitchen capacity, particularly during off-peak hours, while testing new menu concepts with minimal capital investment.

The strategy includes dual-brand operations in single footprints and daypart-specific brands that optimize kitchen use throughout the day—breakfast concepts that transition to lunch and dinner offerings in the same space. By controlling the virtual brand experience in-house, QSRs maintain quality standards and capture margin that would otherwise go to third-party kitchen operators.

Labor Technology Goes Beyond POS

The highest-impact investments for 2026 will be those that simplify, strengthen, and scale operations, with technology extending far beyond traditional point-of-sale systems. Automated beverage stations and robotic fry cooks are moving from pilot programs to scaled deployment, while employee scheduling AI optimizes shift coverage based on predicted demand patterns.

Cross-training support tools help crew members quickly learn new stations, improving operational flexibility in an environment where 80% annual restaurant turnover makes it impossible to reliably staff all positions. IoT-enabled equipment monitoring tracks fryer oil quality, refrigerator compressor performance, and other indicators that allow predictive maintenance rather than reactive repairs. These technologies collectively reduce labor requirements while improving consistency and reducing downtime.

---

C-Store Trends

Breakfast as a Destination Daypart

Perhaps no trend is more transformative for convenience stores than their aggressive positioning as breakfast competitors to traditional QSRs. C-stores are stepping up their breakfast game, with chains like 7-Eleven debuting breakfast lineups featuring pearl sugar-studded Belgian waffle sandwiches, breakfast tacos, and other offerings that could be right at home in fast casual restaurants.

At breakfast, consumers typically want speed, predictability and value—all attributes convenience stores are known for. Full-service restaurant concepts within c-store footprints now feature made-to-order breakfast sandwiches, premium coffee bars that rival specialty cafes, and bakery programs with fresh pastries.

The technology enabler making this possible is self-service kiosks, which manage morning rush complexity while maintaining the speed customers expect from convenience stores. 66% of customers wish they could get made-to-order food from a convenience store, with Gen Z showing particularly strong demand. Extended breakfast hours capture late-morning and “second breakfast” occasions that traditional restaurants often miss, with some locations serving breakfast items well into the afternoon.

For convenience stores, kiosk hardware faces unique operational demands. “In convenience stores, reliability is the top priority. Many locations operate 24/7 and experience sustained, high-traffic usage, which places significant wear on hardware,” explains Epstein. “We’re seeing strong demand for both self-checkout and self-order kiosks as C-stores expand foodservice offerings. In many cases, they’re starting to resemble QSR environments—something that’s obvious when you look at brands like Wawa, where speed, consistency, and uptime are critical.”

Fresh Food Programs Mature Into Core Business

Foodservice is no longer just an add-on; it is a primary draw for modern convenience stores. Retailers are moving beyond grab-and-go prepared foods to offer chef-driven concepts with in-house food preparation capabilities, including bakeries and full kitchens. Foodservice sales made up 27.7% of in-store sales at convenience stores in 2024 and 38.6% of in-store gross margin, making it one of the most important profit drivers for the channel.

Leading c-store operators are developing proprietary menu items that create brand differentiation rather than relying solely on branded food partners. This requires understanding local taste preferences, predicting demand patterns, managing inventory with precision to minimize waste, ensuring food safety compliance, and maintaining quality standards across multiple locations—operational challenges that mirror full-service restaurant operations.

EV Charging Stations Reshape Store Design

The proliferation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure is fundamentally changing convenience store customer behavior and facility design. Extended dwell times of 20-30 minutes during charging sessions require enhanced amenities beyond traditional grab-and-go offerings. Operators are responding with premium food offerings designed specifically for charging customers, digital ordering integration that allows customers to place orders from their vehicles, and comfortable seating areas with WiFi and work-friendly environments.

This shift creates opportunities to increase average transaction values by offering customers more sophisticated food and beverage options during what would otherwise be idle time. The key is designing the experience around the customer’s need state during the charging period rather than the traditional quick-in-and-out convenience store visit.

Third Place Positioning with Indoor Dining

Following the lead of successful European c-store chains, American convenience stores are investing in comfortable seating, premium WiFi, and work-friendly environments that position them as community gathering spaces beyond transactional fuel stops. Coffee shop ambiance competing directly with enterprise coffee chains includes specialty coffee programs, pastry cases, and environments designed for lingering rather than rushing.

This “third place” strategy—creating spaces that serve as social hubs between home and work—allows c-stores to capture different day parts and occasions. Morning coffee meetings, remote workers seeking afternoon workspaces, and evening social gatherings all represent new occasions that traditional convenience stores rarely captured. The investment in environment and amenities is justified by higher average transaction values and increased visit frequency from customers who view the location as a destination rather than just a pit stop.

Age Verification Technology for Alcohol & Tobacco

Regulatory compliance is driving rapid adoption of age verification technology at self-checkout, including biometric and ID scanning systems that automate compliance while reducing liability and theft. As self-checkout expands throughout convenience stores, operators need solutions built for the unique challenges of convenience retail, like age verification for restricted items, alongside lottery ticket management and fuel pump integration.

These systems reduce both labor requirements and compliance risk by automating a process that previously required employee intervention at every transaction involving age-restricted products. Advanced systems can flag suspicious IDs, maintain audit trails for regulatory compliance, and integrate with existing POS and inventory management platforms.

Payment Technology Gets an Upgrade

Payment technology at kiosks is also evolving rapidly. “We’re seeing the emergence of ‘payment-on-glass’ solutions, where the touchscreen itself functions as the payment device, embedding NFC tap-to-pay directly into the display,” notes Epstein. “These technologies have the potential to reduce hardware complexity, speed up transactions, and simplify kiosk layouts.” Biometric payment options, including palm-based authentication similar to implementations at Whole Foods, are also gaining traction as operators seek to reduce friction in the checkout process.

The Convergence: Technology, Value, and the Blurring of Segment Lines

Three common threads connect these trends across all segments: aggressive technology investment, relentless labor optimization, and unwavering focus on elevated customer experiences that justify pricing in a value-focused market.

Self-service technology serves as a critical connector across fast casual, QSR, and convenience stores. 61% of diners now want more kiosks in restaurants, while studies show order sizes increase 15-30% when customers use self-ordering interfaces. This technology simultaneously addresses labor shortages, improves order accuracy, and drives incremental revenue through strategic upselling prompts—making it one of the highest-ROI investments operators can make.

For restaurant technology providers like Bite, this environment presents a significant opportunity. Solutions that work seamlessly across multiple formats—from fast casual to QSR to convenience stores—that adapt to each segment’s unique operational requirements, and that deliver measurable ROI through increased check sizes, improved accuracy, and optimized labor deployment will be essential partners for operators navigating this complex landscape. The technology that wins in 2026 won’t be the flashiest or most futuristic—it will be the solutions that solve real operational problems, integrate smoothly with existing systems, and deliver results from day one.

Key Data Points

Market Size & Growth Projections:

• U.S. QSR Market: Projected to reach $491.65 billion in 2026, growing to $789.65 billion by 2031 at a 9.94% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence)
• Global QSR Market: Expected to reach $1.16 trillion in 2026, expanding to $1.74 trillion by 2031 at 8.41% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence)
• U.S. Fast Casual Market: Projected to reach $115.5 billion by 2026, growing by $84.5 billion through 2029 at 13.7% CAGR (Technavio)
• Global Breakfast Food Market: Valued at $210 billion in 2026, projected to reach $255 billion by 2030 (Tastewise)

Technology Adoption:

• AI Investment: 38.75% of restaurant executives already investing in AI/ML, with nearly 48% planning adoption soon (Modern Restaurant Management)
• Kiosk Preference: 61% of diners want more kiosks in restaurants, up from 36% two years ago; 72% now comfortable using kiosks (EZ-Chow)
• Digital Ordering: Voice AI and self-service kiosks expected to become industry standard in 2026 (QSR Web)
• Restaurant POS Market: Expected to exceed $62.67 billion in 2026, expanding at 9.5% CAGR through 2035 (Restolabs)

Consumer Behavior:

• Traffic Growth: Less than 1% traffic growth anticipated for 2026, making market share capture critical (Restaurant Dive)
• Value Focus: Pricing convergence around $10-$12 creating intense competition across segments (Restaurant Dive)
• Off-Premise Dining: Drive-thru and delivery channels now account for over 70% of revenue at leading QSR brands (Mordor Intelligence)

C-Store Food Service:

• Foodservice Revenue: Made up 27.7% of in-store sales and 38.6% of in-store gross margin at c-stores in 2024 (Restaurant Business)
• Made-to-Order Demand: 66% of customers wish they could get MTO food from a convenience store, with 72% of those being Gen Z (CStore Decisions)

The QSR industry is at a breaking point. With only 14% of consumers still viewing fast food as budget-friendly and labor shortages forcing 48% of operators to reduce hours, the traditional QSR playbook is quickly becoming obsolete. But here’s what the hardliners miss: the brands that adapt now will dominate the next decade.

This isn’t about tweaking your value menu or running another BOGO promotion. It’s about fundamental transformation. The winners this year and beyond will be those who embrace radical efficiency through automation and technology, create irresistible customer experiences through data, and build operational models that thrive despite economic headwinds.

1. Deploy Kiosks as Revenue-Generating Machines

Kiosks aren’t just a labor-saving tool. The data reveals that kiosk orders generate up to 30% higher average tickets than counter orders.

The math is compelling: Research shows that 63% of operators saw higher check sizes specifically attributed to upsell prompts built into self-ordering kiosk software.

The Kiosk Profit Formula:

• Position kiosks prominently near entrances and high-traffic pathways to capture greater adoption
• Partner with companies like Bite, which design intuitive and user-friendly interfaces that naturally guide customers toward premium options
• Implement upselling prompts that highlight add-ons and upgrades, leveraging visual menus that make premium items stand out
• Use data from kiosk orders to identify your most effective upsell combinations and optimize menus based on popular items
• Integrate kiosks with loyalty programs and mobile apps for seamless omnichannel experiences

Don’t make the mistake of viewing kiosks as standalone devices. The biggest ROI comes from higher average checks, personalized upsells, loyalty tie-ins, and more efficient order flow.

2. Turn Ghost Kitchens Into Your Expansion Engine

While competitors struggle with real estate costs, other operators are scaling through ghost kitchens, which offer a big cost advantage. Startup costs range from just $30,000 to $100,000, compared to hundreds of thousands or even millions for traditional restaurants. CloudKitchens, for example, enables establishments to start cooking in as few as 8 weeks with as little as $30,000 initial investment.

Your Ghost Kitchen Game Plan:

• Test new concepts without the risk of full buildouts
• Use ghost kitchens as staging areas for new locations, speeding up construction
• Operate multiple virtual brands from the same kitchen space
• Focus solely on delivery without front-end investments in dine-in facilities, benefiting from smaller footprints, lower rentals, and improved efficiency through shared resources
• Partner with established platforms that handle logistics, cleaning, and maintenance

The most sophisticated operators are running hybrid models—maintaining their flagship locations while using ghost kitchens to penetrate new markets and test menu innovations with minimal risk.

3. Make AI Voice Ordering Your 24/7 Sales Machine

Labor shortages aren’t temporary. The restaurant industry has 1.4 million job openings with turnover approaching 75%. One solution lies in AI voice ordering that’s always clocked in.

Drive-thrus account for as much as 70% of sales at many brands, making even incremental improvements financially significant. Early adopters are seeing game-changing results: For example, Vox AI’s deployments demonstrate ROI increases of up to 17 times, with shorter drive-thru queues, enhanced upselling, and higher customer satisfaction.

Voice AI Implementation Strategy:

• Deploy systems that handle orders 24/7 in multiple languages
• Focus on truly autonomous AI that requires no human intervention during operation
• Implement systems that make more context-specific upsell attempts than human employees
• Ensure seamless integration with existing POS and kitchen systems
• Use AI for both drive-thru and phone ordering (if available) to maximize coverage

The technology is mature and scaling rapidly. Companies like ConverseNow, Kea, and SoundHound AI are all competing for market share, driving innovation and reducing costs.

4. Leverage Data for Hyper-Personalization

Generic marketing is dead. Brands running 200 experiments monthly gain insights that would take traditional marketers years to uncover, with successful personalization delivering 20-30% improvements in conversion.

The opportunity is massive: QSRs using AI-powered predictive analytics for personalized marketing see double-digit lifts in click-through rates and average ticket increases that flow directly to the bottom line.

Your Data Domination Playbook:

• Centralize data from POS systems, mobile apps, and delivery platforms into a unified platform for complete customer visibility
• Use predictive analytics to anticipate demand and optimize inventory
• Test creative variations at scale—one QSR evaluated 320 variations in 18 days, achieving a 22% increase in customer acquisition at 31% lower cost
• Create location-specific profiles to understand local preferences and behaviors
• Leverage AI to deliver personalized offers that drive higher open rates and millions in incremental revenue

Remember: Those who are nailing personalization are growing 40% faster than their counterparts. 

5. Automate Everything That Doesn’t Require a Smile

Beyond front-of-house automation, the real efficiency gains come from comprehensive back-of-house transformation. The global robot kitchen market is projected to reach $9.6 billion by 2033, growing from $2.7 billion in 2023.

Automation Priority List:

• Online ordering systems that integrate directly with POS and kitchen displays, eliminating manual order entry
• Robotic kitchen systems for grilling, frying, and plating
• AI-powered workforce optimization that balances employee availability with demand, reducing labor costs while improving efficiency
• Automated inventory management with predictive ordering
• Labor management software that handles scheduling, time tracking, recruiting, and payroll

The key is strategic implementation. Start with your most time-consuming, repetitive tasks to see immediate efficiency gains, then expand systematically.

6. Rethink Your Menu as a Profit Engine

With nearly 1 in 4 consumers now viewing fast food as a “treat” or “reward”, your menu strategy must evolve beyond basic value plays.

The Profit-Maximizing Menu Framework:

• Create a barbell strategy: rock-bottom value items paired with premium, high-margin options
• Add unique twists to familiar favorites. For example, when chains introduce premium items like wagyu or truffle fries, 30% of consumers express excitement, jumping to 42% among parents
• Use data to identify and eliminate low-performing items
• During labor shortages, analyze menu items to identify the most popular dishes and purge slow-moving ones, particularly those requiring multiple cooking steps
• Design limited-time offers that create urgency without cannibalizing core items

Your menu should tell a story that resonates with both value-seekers and experience-chasers. 

7. Build Loyalty Programs That Drive Behavior

Traditional points-based programs are table stakes. Modern loyalty requires sophistication. 80% of QSR operators say traditional loyalty isn’t working for their brand.

Next-Generation Loyalty Tactics:

• Use personalized offers based on purchasing history and real-time behavior
• Implement subscription models for frequent customers (unlimited drinks, meal bundles)
• Integrate gamification and real-time rewards to keep customers engaged
• Create exclusive experiences and early access to new items for top-tier members
• Use integrated platforms that combine loyalty with ordering data to optimize staffing and maintain service standards

The best programs create emotional connections beyond transactions. Think community, not just coupons.

The Bottom Line

The QSR industry is undergoing its most significant transformation since the invention of the drive-thru. Economic pressures, labor challenges, and evolving consumer expectations are forcing a complete reimagining of the business model.

But within this disruption lies unprecedented opportunity. Brands willing to embrace automation & technology, personalization, and new operational models aren’t just surviving—they’re positioning themselves to capture market share from their competitors.

The question isn’t whether to transform, but how quickly you can execute. Every day you delay is a day your competitors pull further ahead. The playbook is clear, the technology is proven, and the market rewards for early movers are substantial. 

Get your popcorn out, Reservation Wars 3.0 is here. And on this go-around, nearly the whole restaurant tech ecosystem is involved. Below is an attempt to break it down and perhaps even make a few predictions of what happens next.

First up, let’s draw some lines in the sand. It’s easy to establish the primary foes: it’s Resy & Tock vs OpenTable vs SevenRooms. But the fun begins with all the partners, big and small, they’re bringing to the fight.

Each reservation platform has a credit card partner with varying depths of relationship. Let’s go into each:

Resy & Tock Are Owned by American Express

One would think this is straightforward, and it kinda is — yet mosey over to the Chase Ultimate Rewards website and you’ll find Tock powering its Dining Experiences. I predict that we have just a few months, or even weeks, left to see those two partnered.  Amex closed on its Tock deal in mid-October 2024, so we’re coming up on the one-year mark, and I’d bet that OpenTable has been chomping at the bit to take over offering, say,  Sapphire cardholders’ reservations to Estela (which I went to recently and deserves no more than a walk-in bar visit for steak tartare and ricotta dumplings).

OpenTable is Deeply Partnered with Visa & Chase

What’s the counterbalance to Amex buying Resy? Visa and OT, obviously. Smart move by OpenTable to bring on a deep-pocketed credit card partner who has no love for Amex. In July 2024, OT launched the Visa Dining Collection, similar to Resy’s Global Dining Access, where cardholders can book tough-to-get reservations. Behind the scenes, Visa can help to support marketing dollars for OpenTable restaurants, often in exchange for some level of exclusivity to the OT/Visa alliance. While I have no interest in “who shot first”, Amex has a similar program using lump sums to keep Resy/Tock restaurants on their side (obscure ‘90s reference in honor of Jimmy Frischling and Han did). BTW, my pod with Kristen Hawley, called The Simmer, was a main character in the “paying restaurants for their reservations loyalty” accusations in 2024.

Not to complicate things (too late), but OT also has a partnership with Chase, billed as the Sapphire Reserve Exclusive Tables, launched April 2025. Again, “Exclusive Tables” at hot restaurants, yadda yadda yadda.

SevenRooms Powers Capital One Dining

The entire Capital One Dining program is built on top of SevenRooms, a playbook that SevenRooms had with Amex and their concierge service before Resy stepped in. So far, it’s unclear how DoorDash’s buying of SevenRooms will affect this partnership, as DD has a tight relationship with Chase/Mastercard, offering DashPass memberships for free to eligible cards since 2020 (and announced in Aug 2024 that this will extend to 2027).

It will take a while, but I predict that Capital One gets squeezed out of the new SevenRooms / DoorDash partnership, just by virtue of being the C player in the credit card game. For now, showing that you have no reservations at 4 Charles Prime Rib for the foreseeable future, I guess, is cool!?! Also, at a much smaller scale, Capital One has, um, “assembled” (read: paid for) its own Signature Collection of restaurants. 

So, to cover step one… it’s now:

Resy & Tock & Amex vs. OpenTable & Visa & Chase vs. SevenRooms & Capital One.

Let’s bring in the ordering platforms! And since there is no bigger player than DoorDash, we should start with them.

DoorDash Owns SevenRooms

DD closed on its acquisition of SevenRooms in July 2025. It only took a few months to get reservations live in the DoorDash app via the new “Going Out” feature. I hear DoorDash is out collecting its best-of-the-best restaurants and offering compensation for it. Same playbook, different benefactor.

It’s a given they will get some big-name restaurants away from OT/Resy/Tock. DoorDash can and will bundle its third-party delivery fees or Drive fees with its first-party products (ordering, reservations, pos, etc) to grow its footprint within any restaurant. For the QSR world (where I hear DoorDash is making huge inroads fast), the bundle is with first-party web ordering. For full service, the bundle will include some grip on the reservation book. The only question that remains is how much table inventory  DD can force a restaurant to hold. My guess is they’ll come out with near 100% and when restaurants see cover declines, they’ll become less strict. Changing consumer behavior is hard, and the average DD user isn’t yet accustomed to opening the app when making reservations.

OpenTable and Uber Partner

A week after the DoorDash acquisition of SevenRooms was announced, OT and Uber provided some details on their previously announced partnership. Not a coincidence. Kristen’s Expedite covered this perfectly here. At some future point, you’ll be able to book hot reservations in the Uber app and even use your OT points for an Uber. It’s not a stretch to see Uber doing what it takes to get the best restaurants in its app. Which means bags of money showing up at 275 Mulberry St. to pull them off Resy. People have been chattering about how Booking Holdings might/should spin out OT — would Uber be a buyer?

Resy & Tock & Toast

So when the music stopped, the Amex reservation arm was left without a delivery dance partner. There is, of course, Grubhub / Wonder / Seamless – but that’s not really a choice. Instead of taking on that baggage, Amex, somewhat predictably, went to the dominant full-service POS in the US, Toast. During the pandemic, and somewhat thereafter, Toast has leaned into more B2C opportunities with products like Local by Toast, a consumer app where one can order pickup or delivery. In the future, users of the Local App will see Resy and Tock reservations available. I can’t help but think this isn’t going to have a huge impact on restaurants. The reservations functionality in the Local app is buried (it gets the same treatment as “gift cards”), and I’m certain the user base is way smaller than all the other options.

So what’s the play here? Their press release leads with “personalized hospitality experiences,” which translates to the service team knowing more about your previous dining history to better serve you on this visit. In theory, beautiful. In practice, really hard to pull off. There is always this data issue with full-service restaurants – it’s hard to figure out which guests are sitting in which seats at a table and thus what they ordered. Reservation data captures one name, and the other people as essentially anonymous. Regardless of its usefulness, the top restaurants will (over)value this path towards greater hospitality.

Here’s where it gets fun: if the partnership has some exclusivity, whereas Toast won’t open this functionality to other reservation platforms, then it creates a virtuous lock-in for the overlap in their customer bases. If you leave Resy, you lose all that juicy POS data about your guests. Same if you switch POS. Also fun is the MONTH? announcement Toast has added Uber Direct as the default option for restaurants that use Toast’s first-party ordering. This is best viewed as a strategic step away from DoorDash, which is increasingly competing with Toast for first-party ordering and possibly POS. “But wait, aren’t Uber and OT partnered?” Yes. See: fun!

Superteam Updates:

Resy & Tock & Amex & Toast vs. OpenTable & Visa & Chase & Uber vs. SevenRooms & Capital One & DoorDash.

Can we call them T.A.R.T., V.O.U.Ch, and Do.C.S.?

This is becoming quite the Royal Rumble. And yet there are a few more companies that might be forced into the ring. For the most part, this has all been about the full-service segment of the industry. Yet DoorDash and Uber play a significant role in the QSR and Fast Casual segments, while Toast seems to be increasing its market share. Which leads to some strange bedfellows. Let’s quickly explore a few.

Where Does Olo Fit In?

The take-private of Olo from ThomaBravo, followed by the large layoff, are both signs that Olo is going to get active on the biz dev and corp dev fronts. They have up-and-coming competitors in their space (Deliverect, CheckMate, etc) trying to nip at their Rails business while the Toasts and DoorDash’s of the world are attacking their first-party ordering dominance. No one wants to fight a two-front battle. So if Olo gets involved here, I couldn’t see them pairing with TART or DOCS. With the natural alignment of Olo and Uber, VOUCH feels like the right pairing. OpenTable is also best suited for the largest full-service restaurant groups, many in Casual Dining, an industry segment where Olo has deep ties. What would be interesting is to try and make a guest data play here, similar to the Resy-Toast thing, but without involving the POS. Which works here because the goal is less about using data history to service a guest in the moment, as it is about marketing to that guest post-visit or post-order.

By the way, let’s not forget that Olo bought Omnivore in 2022, which is significant because (a) Omnivore connects many tech companies to the legacy POS stack, and (b) they are partnered with Resy and OpenTable.

What About The Other POS companies?

There are a lot of POS players out there – we’ll touch on a few.

PAR is a huge POS in the enterprise QSR space that now has competitive products in first-party ordering. They would never partner with Toast and are unlikely to partner with DoorDash given their move towards first-party. Yet if Olo starts aligning with VOUCH, I’ll be watching to see what PAR does, as there is always a bit of frenemy friction there.

NCR, which is more legacy POS and has a stronghold in the casual dining space, has a natural ally with the VOUCH group, as OT is the reservation system of choice for casual dining.

Micros, a part of Oracle, has a strong hold on the hotel industry, which was a strategic part of SevenRooms’ growth, especially internationally. Toast has made some strong inroads with hotels through a Marriott partnership, so there is little love there. If Oracle, the nearly $800 billion blue chip, decided to get involved, my guess is Larry would text Tony and they’d get a deal done. It’s happened before.

Qu is busy winning QSR and Fast Casual business, so I think they’re on the sidelines here. Spot On should have an opinion here, but they also have their own reservations platform, so they might be handcuffed. Square is making a full-service push, too—yet this is something they told me in 2018 as well. Not sure they’ll get involved in this game, yet. Clover bought the best restaurant website company in history, BentoBox, and is trying to make a play in fine dining (see: Lilia). With Fiserve’s backing and the leadership of Krystle Mobayeni, I’ll speculate that they won’t sit idle.

What to Watch For

To sum this all up, we have TART vs. VOUCH vs. DOCS. What I’m watching for is the movement of key restaurants. Which restaurants are on all platforms, and which are exclusive? The Hospitality Godfather himself, Danny Meyer, was already quoted in the DoorDash Going Out press release (likely due to his 2023 investment into SevenRooms via Enlightened Hospitality Investments). Yet there is no way his restaurants will go exclusive to DOCS. This is likely to be a long war. A war of attrition. A virtual rock fight. Every alliance has deep pockets.

One thing is for sure: it will get harder before it gets easier for both restaurants and consumers. Restaurants already have an overwhelming amount of conflicting marketing channels. And with many of the platforms trying to lock in inventory, they don’t have the flexibility they need to reach all guests on all channels. As for consumers, there is still no clear, easy way to answer “What is the perfect restaurant to make a reservation at tonight?” With 3 different reservation platforms to check availability, the only solution will be to ask your favorite LLM. To me, this leads to a flattening of the market and a dilution of taste. As Kristen puts it: sameness everywhere. While the future holds personalized GPTs and AI dominance, I’m just excited to watch the current competition right in front of us. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!